Pascal’s Wager

Jul 22, 2013 by Barc Category: Blog, Uncategorized 0 comments


Whether or not to profess allegiance to Agile is a bit like Pascal’s Wager (Blaise Pascal, 1623-1662). Since objective proof is as hard to come by for Agile as it is for God, you’re ultimately better off saying you believe than stating otherwise.

The analysis looks a bit like this:


You can see the benefit of believing is way bigger than the benefit of professing even slight doubt. Even if you think the practice has become highly suspect, and even if it fades away in 5 years, it’s still better for your professional health to profess allegiance now.

Of course, none of this is based on a rational analysis of whether or not it’s true or verifiable. It just shows it’s better for you.

If someone ultimately does a systematic, process-by-process (e.g., does Fibonacci really work better than any other series?), then I’ll go with the results.

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